January 2025 Market Update
January can feel like an eternity as the daylight hours move quickly and darkness lingers. Janus, the Roman god for whom our 1st month is named, was two faced – with one face looking back on the past year and one gazing ahead to the future. The deeper meaning of Janus (simplified) revolves around new beginnings, transitions, gates and doorways. Could Janus signify that January is a good month for real estate? Opening doors and starting anew- is that too literal of a translation?
Let’s look at the past 12 months for quick reflection and then focus on what we think 2025 will bring. 2024 finished strong for Grand County real estate sales overall. Most of the year, sales were relatively flat for volume and median prices. While certain sectors outperformed 2023, we didn’t experience many things we had predicted at the end of 2023. Did prices drop significantly due to high interest rates? NO. Did interest rates drop below the mid 6% range as predicted by many economists at the end of 2023? NO. Did demand dwindle and/or disappear? NO. Are we still behind in terms of constructing new housing across the country? YES. Basic supply and demand rules didn’t always apply in 2024 and that is a phenomenon happening around the country, not just in our tiny micro-resort economy.
In the Winter Park area, single family home (SFH) and townhome sales are the only sectors that saw an increase in sales volume (23%), unit sales (11%) and average sales price (11%). The median SFH price jumped only 3% (not enough to meet inflation rate) from $1.45M to $1.49M. Granby and Grand Lake followed suit with this trend as SFH sales volume, average sales price and units sold were all up (as much as 26% for sales volume in the Granby area) BUT median home prices dropped. Granby Area median SFH sales price in 2023 was 925K compared to 905K in 2024. Grand Lake area median sales price dropped 6% from $805,750 to $750,000.
Condo sales were very flat - almost 0% change in the Granby and Grand Lake areas year over year. Winter Park condo sales were down by 6% in volume. Average sales prices were up slightly and median sales prices were a mixed bag with no meaningful shift between the two years.
So what do we expect moving forward? Here are some of our predictions: Rate cuts - while conventional wisdom feels that the Feds may only make 2 rate cuts in 2025, this doesn’t correlate to lower interest rates for the consumer despite what many folks think and the media projects. The federal deficit, inflation rates and other governmental pressures will largely determine the fate of consumers purchasing power. Our advice - pay attention regularly to the emails you receive from your lender friend(s) or give us a call. On any given day, we get dozens of emails from our respected and trusted lender network indicating what is going on in the marketplace and what is coming.
Insurance rates - this is a sensitive topic within a very flawed industry. Property insurance will likely get uglier before it gets better. Our advice - make sure your current insurance does not lapse! This doesn’t matter if you have forested, beach front, urban or rural property. Many folks are grandfathered into a good policy or rate so do what you can to keep it - pay your premiums early or on time. Many of us will experience cancelations or increased premiums and not always for good reason. Again - stay informed and call us. We have resources in our network from preferred insurance agents/companies who can tackle the tough locations to property mitigation contractors to professionals looking to help you protect your biggest asset.
AI - This hot button is affecting every aspect of our lives and you’ve been hearing about it on so many fronts. Do you wish you had AI when that term paper was due? While AI is geared to make life easier, how could this negatively impact real estate? Our advice - look to your local experts if something looks too good to be true. For instance - did you know that AI can enhance not only the description of a property or area but the visual impact inside and outside the property? Sure, sure…we know professional photography can make a property look better than reality - this isn’t new!?! How about exterior enhancements? Wow that roof looks great, the landscaping is amazing under all that snow, the curb appeal is fantastic!! Hmm…is it real or is that what the property “could look like” with some additional $$$. We could go on and on about the importance of doing your due diligence in 2025 and seeking advice from your long-time professionals and friends at REWP. This is just a snippet of things to come as we ascend into the latter half of the 2020 decade.
We will end by tooting our new years’ horn…Real Estate of Winter Park crushed sales in 2024 and are on our way to doing the same in 2025. We retained nearly 20% of the market share for sales volume and are, AGAIN, the top sales office in Grand County. Be well, travel safely and catch up with your REWP friends, locals and experts in the coming year.
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